Election projections are an interesting phenomenon.

They’re often presented as an objective litmus test. But are they?

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) poll on South Africans’ 2019 election choices, predicting strong support for the ANC and its new leader, made its way into almost every news publication in the country.

In a highly-contested election year, there is deep interest about which way the vote may go. There’s been talk about a realignment of South African politics for years, and an end to the ANC’s seemingly effortless dominance.

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