In short 

• COVID-19 caused widespread job losses and financial strain in South Africa. 

• Many households felt economically worse off after the pandemic. 

• Feeling financially worse off was associated with lower satisfaction with democracy, political leaders, and trust in the African National Congress. 

• Economic shocks can weaken political trust, highlighting the importance of inclusive recovery policies. 

The COVID-19 pandemic delivered a severe economic shock to South Africa, triggering widespread job losses, income disruption and heightened financial insecurity for millions of households. Drawing on HSRC national survey data, researchers explored how feeling economically worse off during the late stages of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced political trust in South Africa at the time.

An electronic sign next to the N1 highway near Paarl advising the public that the COVID-19 lockdown in the Western Cape, South Africa, was in effect, April 2020. Photo: Brandon Gregory, Wikimedia 

On 26 March 2020, South Africa went into lockdown three weeks after the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) confirmed the first COVID-19 case in the country. This lockdown had a significant impact on employment rates and the economy. From the first quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2020, net employment fell by 14% (about 2.2 million jobs). Of those still employed, 16% (about 2.3 million people) were placed on temporary leave due to economic conditions and worked zero hours.  

In a recent analysis of data from the 2021 South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS), researchers from the HSRC and University of Edinburgh aimed to understand the perceived economic impacts of COVID-19 on households and how these impacts affected support for the country’s political system. 

Conducted late in 2021, 2 996 South Africans aged 16 and older were asked if their households’ financial situation had gotten better or worse since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The researchers then looked at how their answers to this question influenced how the respondents felt about democracy and politics.  

A billboard at the corner of Long Street and Orange Street in Cape Town, South Africa, calling for South Africans to stay at home during the COVID-19 lockdown, April 2020. Photo: Discott, Wikimedia 

Intertemporal relative deprivation 

Intertemporal relative deprivation is a psychological and economic concept where individuals feel deprived, dissatisfied or frustrated because their current socio-economic status, income or material condition is lower than what they experienced in the past. In other words, rather than comparing their situations to those of others around them, this is a type of self-comparison over time. The concept is studied in sociology and political science, as it can help explain social discontent, social movements and social deviance.  

To qualify their intertemporal relative deprivation, participants of the SASAS survey were asked to describe their overall current economic situation compared with what it had been just before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. They were requested to indicate if their situation at the time of the survey was better, the same or worse than before. 

The study found that 22% of adults said their household finances had improved since the start of the pandemic. The extent to which matters had improved differed between much better (8%) and a little better (14%). On the other hand, 40% said their situation was much the same, and 38% said it had become worse. The range of “worse” was split evenly between a little worse (19%) and much worse (19%).  

Political attitudes 

The researchers found a clear link between intertemporal relative deprivation and political attitudes. For example, as a person moved one step closer to “worse off” on the deprivation scale, they had about 24% lower odds of reporting a more satisfied view of how democracy in South Africa was working. Similarly, each one-step move towards feeling worse off was linked to about 28% lower odds of being in a more satisfied category about political leaders. Relative deprivation was even found to affect whether an adult trusted the African National Congress (ANC) or not. As a person moved one step towards feeling worse off, the likelihood that they would trust the ANC decreased, all else equal, by about 12%. 

Greenmarket Square, a usually bustling outdoor market in Cape Town, South Africa, was quiet during the March 2020 national COVID-19 lockdown. Photo: Discott, Wikimedia

What drove intertemporal relative deprivation? 

When the researchers looked at what was driving feelings of intertemporal relative deprivation, they found that a household’s main source of income played a significant role. For example, living in a household that relied on a non-employment income source (like social grants, money from family members or the sale of farm products) increased the likelihood of experiencing higher intertemporal relative deprivation. The likelihood of experiencing deprivation was less if a person lived in a household reliant on employment. 

COVID-19 exposure through a person’s social network also influenced the likelihood of higher intertemporal relative deprivation. Those who knew someone who had had COVID-19 were more likely to report feeling worse off.  

Living in a rural area consistently reduced the likelihood of experiencing intertemporal relative deprivation. In addition, living in certain provinces (e.g., Western Cape, Northern Cape and Limpopo) was associated with a lower risk of feeling deprived. “These results show how the economic effects of the pandemic were geographically uneven,” the researchers wrote. Being in the white population group (compared with black African) reduced the odds of experiencing relative deprivation as well.  

Micro-level inequality, captured through how people thought their household income compared with others in their village or neighbourhood, also had an impact. Those who believed their neighbours were financially better off were more likely to have experienced intertemporal relative deprivation. Neighbourhood comparison was one of the strongest drivers of deprivation, more important than socio-demographic factors like province of residence or population group. 

Impact 

Investigating intertemporal relative deprivation helped researchers reveal the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on how people see politics. This research shows that people’s sense of being financially worse off almost two years after the start of the pandemic shaped their political viewpoints at the time. It suggests that policymakers should pay attention to perceived financial decline when they plan responses to pandemics and similar major events, because those feelings can link to lower confidence in leaders and weaker satisfaction with democracy.  The research has outlined that certain groups – especially those who relied on a non-employment income – were more vulnerable to intertemporal relative deprivation than others. Policymakers should take this into account when designing responses to major events.  

Research contacts and acknowledgements 

This Review article was based on the study The Pandemic of Poverty: Analysing the Economic Legacies of the Pandemic, and was written by HSRC’s science writer Jessie-Lee Smith and Dr Steven Gordon (chief research specialist) from the HSRC’s Developmental, Capable and Ethical State Division. 

The original study was conducted by Prof. Narnia Bohler-Muller (divisional executive), Dr Steven Gordon (chief research specialist) and Dr Benjamin Roberts (research director) from the HSRC’s Developmental, Capable and Ethical State Division, and Prof. Carin Runciman from the University of Edinburgh. 

The survey team included those who worked on the 2024/25 South African Social Attitudes Survey. 

For more information about this work, please contact Dr Steven Gordon at sgordon@hsrc.ac.za