Over the past 30 years, land use and land cover have changed significantly in QwaQwa in the Eastern Free State. The abandonment of cultivated land and increased urban growth have strained service delivery and affected livelihoods. These findings emerge from the Democracy@30 Study, conducted by the HSRC and the University of the Free State in 2024. The study aimed to provide a platform for local communities to assess progress since the advent of democracy in South Africa and to reflect on the next 30 years in pursuit of a promised “better life for all”. By Grey Magaiza, Tholang Mokhele, Mokhantšo Makoae, Zanele Mncube and Nompumelelo Zungu
Since the advent of democracy, human activities have transformed land use and land cover in the predominantly rural areas of QwaQwa, located in the eastern part of South Africa’s Free State Province.
To understand how these changes affected people’s lives, researchers from the HSRC and the University of the Free State (UFS) QwaQwa Campus visited local communities in 2024. This study formed part of the HSRC’s Democracy@30 Project, which aims to collect stories about people’s experiences of democracy over the past three decades.
QwaQwa is situated in the Afromontane grassland biome and has a long history of subsistence farming and food self-sufficiency. As a former homeland, it once had a thriving industrial base, subsidised by the state and generating employment opportunities. This history highlights the importance of policy changes and their transformative effects on land use and land cover.
By examining post-democratic land use and land cover in QwaQwa, HSRC and UFS researchers explored the impact of human activities and how land use could be regulated amid increasing pressure on service delivery infrastructure, such as water and sanitation, and on sustaining food security, which is threatened as a result of declining agricultural or cultivated land.
The emerging changes also show the need to regulate urban planning to minimise service delivery protests linked to urban sprawl. Urban sprawl is a complex phenomenon. It results from unplanned expansion due to poor urban planning and population growth.
Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing methods, the researchers conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover changes in QwaQwa. They showed how these might have policy implications for the area’s socioeconomic development and sustainable urban growth.
Land use and land cover changes between 1994 and 2022
By classifying land into five categories – waterbodies, grasslands, built-up areas, bare land and cultivated land – the researchers illustrated how the QwaQwa urban sprawl has resulted in an increase in the built-up areas and a decrease in cultivated land, grasslands and bare land (Figure 1). The maps from 2014, 2019 and 2022 show how cultivated land has been abandoned or part of the grasslands or bare land in the area.
“Over there, were our grazing lands, and now, it’s just full of houses.” – a community member
Figure 1. Land use and land cover changes in QwaQwa (1994–2022)
Source: HSRC
Table 1 quantifies these changes in square kilometres and as a percentage of QwaQwa’s total land area of. Built-up areas expanded from 15.71% in 1994 to 24.66% in 2022. Meanwhile, cultivated land decreased from 19.60% to 4.61%, and water bodies declined from 0.49% to 0.19%. These shifts pose a significant threat to food security and overall welfare in the region. Notably, cultivated land abandonment did not result from expanding industrial investments in the area but rather from livelihood transitions that negatively affected self-sustenance and land use management.
Table 1. Area coverage (km2/%) of land use and land cover classes (1994–2022)
Source: HSRC
Strain on service delivery
Urban sprawl has led to previously traditionally controlled lands being converted into built-up areas with private housing. However, this growth has not been matched with the necessary urban infrastructure development to support residents’ needs.
Unplanned urbanisation in QwaQwa has primarily occurred within pre-existing built-up areas, where residents have either expanded their homes by adding additional buildings or acquired new sites to create rooms for rentals. The rising demand for student accommodation at the University of the Free State and the Maluti Technical Vocational Education and Training campuses has further encouraged this trend.
Poor maintenance and the local government’s inability to repair the ageing water, electricity and sanitation infrastructure have contributed to frequent breakdowns, which negatively affected residents’ wellbeing.
“We are looking at the level of pollution in the streets and in the rivers … even the sanitation system has collapsed.” – a community member
These issues have triggered service delivery protests in the area, which could lead to instability in local governance.
The influence of macro-policy decisions
The pressure to urbanise stems directly from macro-policy decisions, such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) and the Urban Development Framework. At the dawn of democracy, these policies led to the construction of many houses in the area. While important for addressing the housing backlog, this construction was not aligned with integrated urban planning as a policy imperative. Poorly implemented policy decisions exposed QwaQwa to inefficient local governance.
Key informant interviews with most residents in the locality pointed out that most of the substantial infrastructure belonged to the “Mopeli regime”, after successive post-democratic governments in the previous 30 years had failed to maintain it.
“We last had those [services] in the ruling time of Mr Mopeli. The ANC does nothing! The dams belong to Mr Mopeli, schools belong to Mr Mopeli, but look what they are doing to them.” – a community member
Some policy and practice suggestions
Over the past 30 years, land use changes have led to decreased land use for agricultural production. Moreover, land use was not converted for economically productive industries, posing a serious threat to livelihoods and human security in the context of poverty and unemployment. Local governance in QwaQwa should find ways of re-engaging the residents in governance and ensure that urban development follows a structured and integrated approach, which is sensitive to the local context as required by the Integrated Urban Development Framework. This means that land use and urban planning requires intentional coordination between municipal and traditional authorities. A regulated urban sprawl will enable local governance structures to plan and effectively budget for land use transitions.
Policy should inform updates on infrastructure maintenance plans in QwaQwa, and local government authorities must prioritise infrastructure development and maintenance. The loss of water bodies due to poor dam maintenance and governance is a case in point, which exacerbates the scarcity of access to bulk water in the overpopulated area. During the key informant interviews, community members reported being able to identify dams and multiple water leaks while still lacking water in their household taps.
“We used to have water at Poohong or Sefikeng … We used to take money there, but the water came from Fika Patso (dam) to our taps. Even from the springs, but when the springs dried up, we would get water from our taps. Herein lies the problem of why I say I don’t see the benefits of democracy. When it arrived, the running water stopped … ” – a community member
Local economic development
Local economic development (LED) should build on available resources, yet QwaQwa’s LED plans have not sufficiently considered ecological services in the area. Given its grassland biome, and as shown by the land use and land cover changes in the area, significant areas of grassland can still be used for agro-based livelihoods.
A deliberate strategic focus on climate-smart agriculture projects for domestic consumption could reduce unemployment, reduce food insecurity and promote subsistence green agriculture practices. Developing viable and profitable agriculture value chains could help mitigate the impact of climate change.
The land use and land cover changes show an increase in what may be termed “idle” land, and this can be addressed through LED practices that incorporate community-based knowledge systems and multi-stakeholder perspectives on land use.
Finally, the significant reduction in cultivated land poses a serious threat to food security of households in QwaQwa, which necessitates policies that protect farmlands and cultivated land.
A need for data-informed planning
The HSRC’s data on land use and land cover changes can inform and stimulate regulated and integrated urban planning, improve relationships between traditional and local authorities, guide infrastructure maintenance plans and support coordinated LED approaches. If these fundamentals are prioritised, urban sprawl can contribute to livelihoods, socioeconomic development and overall wellbeing in QwaQwa.
Research contacts:
Dr Mokhantšo Makoae, research director in the HSRC’s Developmental, Capable and Ethical State Division, Dr Tholang Mokhele, acting head of Geospatial Analytics in the HSRC’s eResearch Knowledge Unit, and Dr Grey Magaiza, senior lecturer, University of the Free State
