As the country shifts away from coal towards cleaner energy sources, HSRC data reveals that while an increasing proportion of South Africans are aware of climate change, deep divides remain in understanding, trust and support. The findings offer a rare window into public opinion during a time of growing climate threats and persistent inequality.
Youths protest for action against climate change outside Parliament in Cape Town, South Africa, 15 March 2019. Photo by Ashraf Hendricks, CC BY-ND 4.0, GroundUp
In South Africa, concerns about the impact of climate change have prompted a shift from a predominantly coal-powered energy sector to a low-emissions and climate-resilient economy. According to HSRC researchers, “The country faces increased temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. These changes pose significant threats to key sectors of the economy, particularly agriculture, which is crucial for food security.”
To complicate matters further, the journey towards a low-carbon future in South Africa is unfolding against a backdrop of economic hardship, social inequality and heightened environmental vulnerability. Unemployment, poverty and lingering infrastructure challenges often overshadow pressing ecological issues. Therefore, the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), which is leading this transition in the country, is focused on creating new and better employment opportunities, while advancing national development priorities under the banner of a Just Transition.
In fulfilling this mandate, the PCC commissioned the HSRC to conduct a nationally representative survey in late 2023, which aimed to fill a knowledge gap on how everyday South Africans view the Just Transition, including their awareness of climate change, their policy preferences and the potential impacts. The survey was administered using the HSRC’s South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS) research infrastructure, using a sample of 3 112 adults aged 16 years and older. The data were weighted using Statistics South Africa’s mid-year population estimates as a benchmark, with a 2% margin of error. The recently released survey provided a revealing snapshot of how the public perceives this unfolding transition, their experiences, their fears, and what motivates their support.
Awareness
The HSRC’s PCC survey identified growing awareness of climate change among South Africans. As seen in Figure 1, in 2023, 50% of respondents reported knowing a fair amount or a lot about climate change, a third said they knew only a little, while a further 17% of respondents knew nothing at all about this subject. Since 2007, public awareness of climate change has increased significantly, with the proportion of people reporting they knew a fair amount or a lot about the topic rising from 18% in 2007 to 34% in 2017, and further to 49 and 50% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The fact that half the public still has limited or no awareness of climate change remains a source of concern.
Figure 1. Climate change awareness by percentage between 2007 and 2023
Exposure to climate shocks
In the survey, most respondents (74%) reported that they or their families had been affected by extreme weather events in the decade prior to being interviewed. Exposure ranged from minor difficulties to significant disruptions. KwaZulu-Natal residents had the worst reported exposure, with 60% experiencing extreme weather to some or a great extent. People who had been harder hit by environmental shocks showed deeper concern about climate change, indicating that first-hand experiences may, in part, be driving stronger acknowledgement of climate risks.
Concern for environmental issues
Although almost three-quarters of South African adults reported exposure to extreme weather conditions, only 5% of respondents said environmental issues were one of the nation’s most pressing concerns. Unemployment was the number one concern in South Africa, mentioned by 73% of adults. Second was crime and safety, at 47%. This does not imply that environmental concerns are unimportant, but they are presently overshadowed by basic socioeconomic and human security concerns. Future communication campaigns will need to emphasise the interlinked nature of the climate crisis and personal wellbeing, illustrating how environmental issues can exacerbate economic and social vulnerabilities.
As seen in Figure 2, concern for climate change is quite widespread in the country, with 45% very or extremely worried in 2023. This figure represented a modest decrease relative to the HSRC’s surveys in 2017 and 2022, with 50% expressing strong concern. Only 15% of respondents in the 2023 survey said they were not worried at all or not very worried about climate change, with similar shares recorded in the previous surveys. From a cross-national perspective, this level of concern remains relatively high, exceeding the level recorded in most European nations.
Figure 2. Concern for climate change by percentage in 2017, 2022 and 2023
Source: HSRC
Causes of climate change
South Africans’ perceptions of the causes of climate change were mixed. As seen in Figure 3, for example, 10% of respondents said that the climate was not changing at all, 32% said changes were due to natural processes, while 17% said it was mostly caused by human activities. Another 31% of respondents believed that changes in the climate were caused equally by natural and human processes. These findings point to high levels of climate scepticism still existing in the country.
Figure 3. Percentage of respondents’ climate scepticism in 2020 and 2023
Source: HSRC
Understanding the Just Transition
According to the survey, 72% of respondents had come across news or discussions about moving away from coal to cleaner energy sources like solar and wind. However, 65% of respondents had never heard the specific term “Just Transition” and only 9% understood what it meant. People in metropolitan areas and the Western Cape showed slightly better awareness, whereas in rural areas and certain other provinces, many remained unfamiliar with either the broader energy shift or the Just Transition framework.
Approval of the Just Transition
The majority of South Africans (over 60%) approved of switching from coal to renewable energy in principle. Moreover, as seen in Figure 4, 51% of respondents believed a main benefit of such a transition would end load shedding, 41% believed the economy would grow, and another 41% believed the transition would decrease electricity prices.
Figure 4. Perceptions of the positive impact of the Just Transition (percentage of respondents mentioning each benefit)
Source: HSRC
However, 57% of respondents worried about how this shift might negatively impact them, expressing at least moderate or strong worry. As seen in Figure 5, South Africans’ biggest fears related to increased electricity prices (33%) and the potential for job losses (32%). Many also worried about increased inequality and a sense that poorer communities could bear the brunt of the transition’s costs.
Figure 5. Concerns about the negative impact of the Just Transition by percentage of respondents
Source: HSRC
Responsibility for climate action
In general, respondents felt a moderate to strong sense of personal responsibility for environmental protection. Individuals who were very or extremely worried about climate change felt a stronger sense of responsibility than those who were not worried.
Respondents saw environmental organisations (43%), large companies (32%), and the national government (29%) as the most responsible for addressing the climate crisis. Only 19% saw individuals and households as the most responsible for addressing the issue.
In terms of financing climate action, 34% of respondents believed South Africa should accept funds from external sources, but that these funds should not be managed by the SA government. A further 30% believed that the government should be responsible for managing those funds, while 14% believed that the government should not accept help at all. The remaining fifth (22%) were ambivalent or uncertain as to how to respond to the climate finance question.
South Africans also weighed in on who they trusted most to oversee and make decisions during the transition to a clean energy system. Views were quite diverse, with the national government emerging as the most trusted at 26%. The private sector (13%), local government (10%) and community leaders (7%) also featured. Regardless of primary responsibility, 45% of respondents said that they wanted national government to be involved in decision making, followed by the private sector (28%) and local government (27%).
Conclusion
According to HSRC researchers, undervaluing the importance of environmental issues could delay action and deepen existing crises over the longer term. They argue that this tendency to sideline environmental challenges stems partly from the country’s social and economic strains. “These survey results highlight the complexity of public trust in managing the transition from coal to other energy sources, emphasising the need for inclusive and collaborative approaches in policy and decision-making processes.”
Despite growing awareness and high levels of concern about climate change in South Africa, the public is fairly divided on how the Just Transition should be managed, with many expressing fears about job losses and increased costs. The findings underscore the need for policies that connect climate action to socioeconomic benefits, address inequalities and ensure inclusive decision making. These results point to the importance of clear communication and transparent governance to build public support for a cleaner energy future.
Research contacts and acknowledgements
This article was written by Dr Benjamin Roberts, a research director, and Dr Simangele Dlamini, a senior research specialist, in the HSRC’s Developmental, Capable and Ethical State (DCES) research division, as well as HSRC science writer, Jessie-Lee Smith. The article is based on findings from a 2023 survey, Public perceptions and attitudes relating to climate change and the Just Transition in South Africa, authored by Roberts, Dr Jarè Struwig and Dr Thobeka Zondi. For more information, please contact Roberts (broberts@hsrc.ac.za), Dlamini (sdlamini@hsrc.ac.za) or DCES divisional executive, Prof. Narnia Bohler-Muller (nbohlermuller@hsrc.ac.za).
Other contributors to the survey report included Dr Steven Gordon, Dr Shanaaz Dunn, Dr Emmanuel Fundisi, Dr Simangele Dlamini and Prof. Narnia Bohler-Muller. We are also grateful for the input received from Katie Ross and Katie Connolly of the World Resources Institute and members of the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC). The African Climate Foundation provided the financial support for the survey research on behalf of the PCC.
