Key findings: It is estimated that new demand or growth demand for the period 2004-2008 for educators will be similar over time if learner to educator ratios remain constant. Maintaining the current standard learner to educator ratio of 40 and 35 in primary and secondary education respectively, would require up to 343 000 in 2008.

Replacement demand is likely to be significant in the next four years (up to 2008), reflecting resignation, death and ageing of the educator workforce. If the past and projected trends continued, the projected demand for educators in 2008 is taken into consideration, there would be a short fall of around 15 090 educators by 2008 if learner to educator ratios are 40:1 for primary and 35:1 for secondary schools. If the learner to educator ratio was 35 for both primary and secondary school educators, the projected demand for educators would imply a shortfall of around 32 000- 34 000 educators by 2008.

Results

To project the demand for educators, learner to educator ratio of 40 and 35 in primary and secondary education respectively were used in the three scenarios in Models 1 and 2 projections. Figure 1 suggests that the population of school age children (primary and secondary school-age combined) in 2004 was somewhere around 12.1 million (Model 1) and 12.8 million (Model 2) and this could increase to about 12.5 million (Model 1) to 13.2 million (Model 2) in 2008.

Figure 1: Projected learner population, 2004-2008

 If enrolment ratio were 97% throughout the projection period, the projected number of learners would increase from somewhere around 11.8 million to 12.4 million (Models 1 and 2) in 2004 to around 12.1 million to 12.8 million in 2008 (Figure 5.2). If enrolment ratio increased to 98% or 99% in 2007, the projected number of learners could be in the region of 13.0 million (Model 2) in 2008.

Figure 2: Projected school enrolment, assuming an enrolment ratio of 97%

To maintain the current standard learner to educator ratio of 40 and 35 in primary and secondary education respectively, a net-enrolment ratio of 97% would require about 319704 (Model 1) to 336159 (Model 2) educators in 2008. If the enrolment ratio increased to 99% in 2007, the number of educators required in 2008 would be around 326296 (Model 1) to 343090 (Model 2).

If the assumptions in the projections hold, there could be up to 13.2 million school age children (aged 6-18) in South Africa by 2008 and of these, 13.1 million could be enrolled at school creating a demand of up to 343 000 educators by 2008 if the current standards of learner to educator ratios were maintained. If current standards were to be improved (i.e. a lower learner educator ratio), the demand for educators would be higher.

The projected replacement demand for educators needs to be considered alongside the projected supply of educators (joining the public education sector). Both numbers must match if present standards were to be maintained.

Figure 3 presents the results of the projections for replacement demand. These suggests that the number of educators was probably around 358 000 in 2003/4 financial year and could decrease to around 328 000 in 2007/08 financial year if the assumptions above held.

Figure 3: Projected supply of educators, 2004-2008

If the past and projected trends continued, the projected demand for educators in 2008 is taken into consideration, there would be a short fall of around 15 090 educators (i.e. 343 090-328 000) by 2008. If the learner to educator ratio was 35 for both primary and secondary school educators, the projected demand for educators would imply a shortfall of around 32 000- 34 000 educators by 2008.