Key findings: Comparing learner population and learner enrolment, the potential learner population (6- to 18-year-olds) has been increasing from 1999 to 2003, but learner enrolment has been decreasing from 1997 to 2003.

The school-age population aged 6-13 grew by 1.4% per annum between 1999 and 2001 and by 1.2% per annum between 2001 and 2003. During the period 1999-2001 the school-age population aged 14-18 grew by 0.6% per annum and by 1.2% during the period 2001-2003.

Results

Comparing learner enrolment trends with learner to educator ratios, learner enrolments seem to decrease over the years (see Figure 1) but learner to educator ratios stayed the same (see Table 1), meaning fewer educators compensate for fewer enrolments.

Figure 1: Learner enrolment in public schools

Table 1: Learner-educator ratio in public schools

The learner enrolment decline from 1997 to 2003 by 6.1% – based on SNAP surveys – may be attributed mainly to:

• an increase in the age-appropriate admission from five years to seven years in 2000 and six years in 2003;
• the reduction of gross enrolment ratios (GER) (less over- and under-aged learner enrolment);
• increased Senior Certificate Examination pass rates, coupled with a policy of fewer opportunities to repeat grades which probably contributed to an increased throughput from Grade 1 to 12; and
• less over-reporting of learner enrolment due to an enhanced provincial Education Management Information Systems (EMIS). The above-mentioned factors could mean that learner enrolments may not decrease in the coming years and that factors associated with HIV, such as fertility decline and an increase in the proportion of vulnerable children (orphans, girls) with restricted access to school may not have a significant impact on learner enrolments in the next few years. This takes into account a factor such as the net-enrolment ratio of orphans, which was 95% compared to 98% in the general 6 to 18 year old population.

Using population-based data the school-age population aged 6-13 grew by 1.4% per annum between 1999 and 2001,and by 1.2% per annum between 2001 and 2003. The school-age population aged 14-18 grew by 0.6% per annum during the period 1999-2001 and by 1.2% during the period 2001-2003, taking estimates of the impact of AIDS into consideration (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Estimated trend in school-age population