In short
- HSRC analysis found that the drivers of youth unemployment vary significantly across Gauteng wards, highlighting the importance of local context.
- Factors associated with unemployment include being female, living in informal housing, experiencing job-search difficulties and dissatisfaction with government job-creation efforts.
- The relationship between these factors and unemployment differs geographically, with some areas experiencing stronger effects than others.
- The findings support place-based interventions tailored to local socioeconomic realities rather than uniform provincial employment policies.
Youth unemployment is often described as a national crisis, but its causes do not look the same everywhere. A new HSRC analysis of unemployment across Gauteng shows how the factors linked to youth unemployment vary sharply between wards, pointing to the need for job creation efforts that respond to local realities rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.
Official sources have referred to youth unemployment in South Africa as a crisis. These concerns were laid bare on 16 April 2026 when media reports estimated that around 25,000 unemployed youth arrived at a recruitment drive at Athlone Stadium, Cape Town, each in the hope of securing one of the 1,000 jobs advertised.
“The result was chaos. A stampede. Young people pushing and shoving, not out of disorder, but out of desperation,” wrote Lwazi Phakade, the African National Congress Youth League Western Cape provincial chairperson in a letter to the editor published by the Cape Times.
In the first quarter of 2026, 45.6% of young people aged 15–34 years in South Africa were unemployed – significantly higher than the national unemployment rate of 32.7%. Unemployment rates were even higher among those aged 15–24, where unemployment stood at 60.9%.
Existing research shows that youth unemployment in South Africa is high, persistent and shaped by overlapping social and economic disadvantages. What is less well known, however, is how the drivers of youth unemployment vary from place to place within provinces such as Gauteng.
Therefore, HSRC researchers conducted a location-based analysis to examine how youth unemployment varied across Gauteng and how its relationship with key socioeconomic factors differed between wards (areas within a municipality). The analysis focused on 4,880 youth aged 18–34.
HSRC researchers used data from the Quality of Life Survey 7 (2023/2024), which was conducted by the Gauteng City-Region Observatory. This survey gathered data on residents’ socioeconomic conditions, such as work, housing and income-related issues; values; satisfaction with service delivery; and other aspects of life in Gauteng.
Unemployment and space
Several factors were linked to youth unemployment across Gauteng, including living in an informal dwelling, being female, finding job searching difficult, and dissatisfaction with government job creation initiatives. These relationships were not the same across all wards, showing that local factors explained youth unemployment better in some places.
Key local patterns
Being female was more strongly linked to unemployment in parts of the West Rand, Ekurhuleni and Sedibeng. Residing in informal dwellings was more strongly linked to unemployment in the City of Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg, while job search difficulty was especially important in these two wards as well as in Sedibeng. Dissatisfaction with government initiatives to create jobs showed strong links with unemployment in many parts of Gauteng, especially in the City of Tshwane and the City of Johannesburg.
Gender
Being female was a significant predictor of youth unemployment overall. The spatial model showed that this link was strongest in parts of the West Rand, City of Ekurhuleni and Sedibeng, suggesting that young women face particularly strong employment barriers in some wards.
Education
Matric completion showed a positive but non-significant relationship with youth unemployment in the overall model. However, the spatial model found stronger effects in Sedibeng, City of Tshwane and City of Johannesburg, where higher numbers of matriculants were linked to higher unemployment. These findings indicate that labour market segmentation, low skills development and structural inequality may be major factors influencing unemployment in South Africa.
The findings also suggest that completing matriculation is not sufficient to save young people from unemployment. The concentration of unemployed matriculants in areas such as the City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane and Sedibeng points to a widening gap between educational attainment and the labour market’s capacity to hire young job seekers. This emphasises the need for stronger alignment between skills development, education and local economic opportunities.
Informal dwelling
Living in an informal dwelling was a significant predictor in the overall model. Spatially, its impact was most noticeable in the City of Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg, especially in densely settled wards. Wards with higher numbers of young people living in informal dwellings tended to have high unemployment rates, although this association was not statistically significant across all areas.
Job search difficulty
The perception that it had become harder to find work was strongly linked to youth unemployment, especially in Sedibeng, the City of Ekurhuleni, City of Johannesburg, and parts of the West Rand. These findings show that barriers to entering labour markets are not limited to individual characteristics, but are closely related to geographic factors such as accessibility of transportation, proximity to economic centres and local job density.
Dissatisfaction with government job creation initiatives
Dissatisfaction with government initiatives to create jobs was a significant predictor overall and showed some of the strongest spatial patterns. It was strongly associated with youth unemployment across Sedibeng, the West Rand, City of Johannesburg and City of Ekurhuleni, and was especially visible in parts of Tshwane and Johannesburg. Considering the limitations of the study, it is equally likely that unemployment itself contributed to reduced life satisfaction and high dissatisfaction with government performance.
Implications
This study challenges the notion that youth unemployment can be addressed through uniform provincial policies, which is one of its most significant contributions. The research shows that unemployment is shaped by local realities such as access to opportunities, job search barriers, settlement patterns and perceptions of government support by revealing significant spatial disparities across Gauteng.
Rather than relying on broad standardised programmes, the study could therefore encourage policymakers to shift toward more place-based interventions tailored to the specific socioeconomic circumstances of various areas.
Research contacts and acknowledgements
This Review article was written by HSRC science writer Jessie-Lee Smith, Thabiso Moeti, Dr Tholang Mokhele, and Dr Emmanuel Fundisi from the HSRC’s Geospatial Computing and Analytics Unit, under the Chief Operating Officer Division.
It was based on the paper Hidden spatial inequalities in youth unemployment in Gauteng: need for place-based interventions written by Moeti, Mokhele and Fundisi.
For more information about this work, please contact Moeti at tmoeti@hsrc.ac.za.
The survey team included those at the Gauteng City-Region Observatory who conducted the Quality of Life Survey 7 (2023/24).