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Dealing with Uncertainty; Systems Dynamics Approach for Modelling South Africa Response to COVID-19

20 August 2020
12:00 - 14:00

Meeting Recording:

Access Passcode: dUUwDE!4

Date: 20 August 2020   Time: 12h00 –14h00
Livestream via Zoom

Many countries in the world are still struggling to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Sub-Sahara Africa, South Africa has reported the highest number of Covid-19 infections. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of virus including setting a national command team for Covid-19 and putting the country on a complete lockdown for more than 100 days. Evidence across most countries have shown that, it is vital to monitor the pandemic’s progression and assess the effects of various public health measures, such as lockdown on mass gatherings and the exercise of good hygiene. Countries need to have scientific tools to assist in the monitoring and assessment of effectiveness of mitigation interventions as well as forecasting the future outlook. This study presents a systems dynamic model of the Covid-19 infection in South Africa, as one of such tools. The key purpose of developing the model was to assess the extent to which a systems dynamics model can forecast the Covid-19 infections in South Africa and be a useful tool in evaluating government interventions to manage the epidemics through ‘what if’ simulations.

Presentations are available for download below:

Prof Charles Hongoro: Strategic Lead, PaSS – Developmental Ethical and Capable State (DCES) HSRC

Prof Narnia Bohler-Muller: Divisional Executive, Developmental Ethical and Capable State (DCES) HSRC

Dr Martin Kaggwa: Executive Director, Sam Tambani Research Institute (SATRI)

Dr Shingirirai Savious Mutanga: Senior Research Specialist, PaSS – Developmental Ethical and Capable State (DCES) HSRC

Prof Charles Wambebe: President of International Biomedical Research for Africa

Dr Martin Kaggwa, Dr Shingi Mutanga, Dr Mercy Ngungu, Ms Fhulufhelo Tshililo

*    Dr Mercy Ngungu: Data Manager, Developmental, Capable & Ethical State (DCES) HSRC
*    Ms Fhulufhelo Tshililo: PhD Intern, PaSS – Developmental Ethical and Capable State (DCES) HSRC

Dr Emmanuel Sekyere, Ag. Research Director, PaSS – Developmental Ethical and Capable State (DCES) HSRC

For further information contact: Arlene Grossberg | E:

The HSRC seminar series is funded by the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI). The views and opinions expressed therein as well as findings and statements of the seminar series do not necessarily represent the views of the DSI. Please also note that this seminar may be recorded and published on the HSRC podcast channel.

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