The policy brief, ‘Revitalised agreement on the resolution of the conflict in South Sudan post-2024’ was produced by the HSRC and authored by Sonja Theron PhD, a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria (UP), and Kutlwano Mohale, a research trainee at the HSRC.
This Policy Brief examines the challenges facing South Sudan’s transitional government in the lead-up to the 2026 elections. The authors argue that the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), while maintaining a fragile peace, has not addressed the root causes of conflict. These causes include a fractured leadership, a lack of civic space, and the need for increased transparency and accountability in resource management. The authors emphasize the importance of strengthening state-society relations, promoting media freedom, and investing in education as crucial steps toward a sustainable peace.
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Executive Summary
The Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) 2018 is reaching a tipping point, where the sustainability of the elite pact will be tested. This tipping point will be triggered by two potential catalysts. First, the Sudanese crisis has prevented maintenance of the two oil pipelines transporting oil to Port Sudan, leading to one’s failure. Historically, elite pacts work in South Sudan for as long as the resources are available to sustain them. As oil revenues decline, funding the bloated government will become increasingly difficult, and competition for a shrinking pie will intensify. The second catalyst is the 24-month extension of the transitional period, with the December 2024 elections postponed to December 2026.1 Both leave observers with a sense of déjà vu. The 2013 civil war broke out after a period of declining oil revenues and as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) was contesting its internal leadership in preparation for future elections. Have the structures of leadership and culture of politics in South Sudan changed enough to face these challenges peacefully and collectively? Evidence is not promising.
Click here to access the full policy brief pdf.
