What if a simple shift in how we measure drought could change how we tackle poverty?

Join the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) for a timely webinar exploring The Theory of Runs: A Statistical Framework for Drought Analysis and its Implications for Poverty Reduction. This session will examine how statistical methods can improve drought forecasting, sharpen early warning systems, and guide practical responses to food insecurity and economic instability in drought-prone regions, such as South Africa’s Free State.

Dr Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele, a chief research specialist at the HSRC, will present how the theory of runs can be applied to assess drought frequency, duration, and severity. Moving beyond traditional climate indices, this approach provides a structured lens for evaluating long dry spells and their socioeconomic impact on communities reliant on agriculture. His talk will offer real-world applications for data-informed policy, particularly around water resource planning, climate-smart agriculture, and poverty alleviation.

The keynote address by Dr Moeletsi Mokhele, a research team manager at the ARC, will draw from his deep expertise in agrometeorology and climate change to position this statistical model within broader resilience-building efforts across the agricultural sector. With opening remarks by Prof. Narnia Bohler-Muller and closing reflections from Prof. Charles Hongoro (both from HSRC), the session will be moderated by Dr Mokhantšo Makoae.

Whether you’re a policymaker, researcher, development practitioner, or postgraduate student, this webinar will provoke fresh thinking on how quantitative data can be transformed into meaningful strategies for drought resilience and poverty reduction.

Date: Thursday, 08 May 2025

Time: 11:30 – 13:00

Venue: Virtual

Teams link: Click HERE